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USDA 3rd Quarter Grain Stocks Report Recap

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The USDA released the results of their 3rd Quarterly Grain Stocks report of 2017 on Friday, September 29th. The report used data that measured the stocks on hand in the U.S. as of Sept. 1st. Some of the highlights are below:

-Total soybean stocks were estimated at 301 million bushels. The average guess by those in the trade was 338 million bushels. Last year's September report showed the U.S. with total soybean stocks of 197 million bushels. That's a 53% increase year/year. Despite the big jump in stocks from last year, the market still viewed the numbers as bullish as it was below expectations and well below the 480 million bushels the USDA had originally expected this report to show way back in December of 2016.

Bottom Line: The U.S. produced a huge amount of beans last year, and is on pace for even more in 2017, but they continue to get used up more than expected. 

-Total corn stocks estimated at 2.295 billion bushels, which was just below the average guess of 2.353 billion. While the market viewed this as slightly bullish news, the minor positive reaction overshadowed the real news. This was the largest stocks of corn on hand in the United States in 30 years. That's pretty much all that needs to be talked about at this point as another large crop is beginning to come in across the country.

-Total wheat stocks on hand were estimated at 2.253 billion bushels compared to the average guess of 2.205 billion. Most were expecting to see a slight reduction from the expected amount here with U.S. production being down this year. However, the stocks did not shrink as much as expected. Stocks are down 11 percent from this time last year, but still are very burdensome and therefore the price is not expected to get moving forward anytime soon.
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